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Statistics

Bayes Theorem Calculator

Compute posterior probability from prior, sensitivity, and false positive rate.

Bayes Theorem Calculator computes posterior probability from prior, sensitivity, and false-positive/base-rate inputs. It is useful for diagnostic reasoning and risk interpretation tasks. The tool makes base-rate effects explicit in one step. Use it to avoid intuition errors in conditional probability.

Bayes Inputs

All values are percentages.

Result

Evidence P(B): 5.9000%

Posterior P(A|B): 16.1017%

How to use this tool

  1. Enter prior probability and conditional likelihood terms.
  2. Run calculation to get posterior probability.
  3. Compare posterior against decision thresholds for your use case.

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