Business

Churn Impact Simulator

Project customer count and MRR under churn and acquisition assumptions.

Last validated: 2026-02-14

Churn Impact Simulator projects customer count and revenue over time from churn and acquisition assumptions. It is useful for subscription planning, retention strategy, and board-level forecasting. The tool helps quantify how small churn changes compound into large revenue effects. Use it to prioritize retention work against acquisition spend.

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Input Pattern

Enter values in the left panel, keep units explicit, run the calculation, then copy or share the result. Invalid fields are highlighted immediately.

Churn Model Inputs

Simulate customer and MRR outcomes from churn and new acquisition.

Projection Results

Customer change: 24

Final MRR: $62,880.00

Total churned customers: 216

Total new customers: 240

Annualized churn: 34.79%

Net revenue change: 4.80%

Month	Churned	Net Change	Customers	MRR
1	18	2	502	$60,240.00
2	18	2	504	$60,480.00
3	18	2	506	$60,720.00
4	18	2	508	$60,960.00
5	18	2	510	$61,200.00
6	18	2	512	$61,440.00
7	18	2	514	$61,680.00
8	18	2	516	$61,920.00
9	18	2	518	$62,160.00
10	18	2	520	$62,400.00
11	18	2	522	$62,640.00
12	18	2	524	$62,880.00

How to use this tool

Enter starting customers, ARPU, churn rate, and acquisition assumptions.
Run the simulation to view projected customers and revenue timeline.
Compare scenarios with different churn rates to size retention impact.

Worked Example

Auto-generated from the tool's current default or entered inputs.

Example Inputs

Starting customers: 500
Arpu: 120.0
Monthly churn percent: 3.5
Monthly new customers: 20
Months: 12
Final customers: 524
Final mrr: 62880.0
Net change customers: 24

Expected Outputs

Starting customers: 500
Arpu: 120
Monthly churn percent: 3.5
Monthly new customers: 20

Interpretation

Starting customers is 500. Use this as a decision input, not as a standalone conclusion.
Arpu is 120.0. Use this as a decision input, not as a standalone conclusion.
Monthly churn percent is 3.5. Use this as a decision input, not as a standalone conclusion.
Compare at least one conservative and one aggressive scenario before committing to a target.

Scenario Compare (A vs B)

Use this to compare two input sets and quantify change in key outputs.

Scenario A

Starting customers

Arpu

Monthly churn percent

Monthly new customers

Months

Final customers

Final mrr

Net change customers

Scenario B